Overview:

Saturday night Top Rank presents one of the most anticipated fights of the year when World Middleweight Champion, Son of a Legend, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. faces Linear Middleweight Champion Sergio “Maravilla” Martinez for all the bells and marbles.   Martinez is one of the 5 best fighters pound for pound winning fights against the likes of Kelly Pavlik and Paul Williams, grabing titles at Jr. Middleweight and Middleweight.   Chavez Jr. is the son of legendary mexican boxer Julio Cesar Chavez, arguably the greatest mexican and latino fighter ever.   After at least a year of trash talking they finally meet this weekend at the Thomas and Mack Center before a sellout crowd of 19,162, a record for the venue.

Skills

Both fighters have above average skills but the edge must be given to Martinez as he has proven his arsenal against the best of the best available and shown what he’s capable of doing.   Chavez has underrated skills mostly because of who he is and his heritage.  People tend to expect way more out of him, but when you analyze him you’ll notice that he isn’t as bad as people tend to think.   He has good ring generalship and throws hooks and uppercuts as if he had an extensive amateur background.  This category is closer than most think.  Edge: Martinez

Speed

Martinez is a fast boxer in any weight class.  He throws his hands with tremendous speed and that gives him that knockout power that has been present ever since he jumped to Middleweight.   Much like Manny Pacquiao, he brought his speed with him and Middleweights aren’t used to seeing this kind of speed and are often surprised with punches they don’t see.    Chavez is a tad slow.   Not slow say Antonio Margarito, but he is not a fast fighter.   He can be considered as an average speed fighter, like most mexicans.  His timing is what lets him get to his opponents.  Clear category.  Edge: Martinez

Power

This is a very difficult category to interpret as both fighters tend to stop their opponents but for different reasons.  Neither Chavez or Martinez are one punch KO artists, like say, Gerald McClellan or Felix Trinidad, they mostly get their knockouts out of other attributes.  In the case of Chavez his constant pressure and strength take a lot out of his opponents leaving them helpless from the middle rounds and on.  Martinez relies on speed to deliver his strong punch, often catching fighters of guard and unprepared for a certain punch.  He also sends his punches from awkward positions, giving him an edge over many.   Edge:  Even

Defense

Both Martinez and Chavez don’t have good defensive skills.   Both get hit more than they should, and are often marked after a fight.  Martinez has been dropped several times, even knocked out by the slow Margarito, mostly because he tends to eat some shots that he shouldn’t.  Chavez believes he has a granite chin (which he has) and doesn’t care if he gets hit or not.   This helps his offense, but hurts his defense as he doesn’t care for that particular skill.   Edge: Martinez (Slightly)

Chin

Chavez has a tough chin, he seems to have inherited his daddy’s whiskers.  He rarely’s been hurt in the ring and usually eats punches like they’re Doritos.   Martinez has been dropped several times as I said in the last category, even ko’d by Antonio Margarito.    Edge: Chavez

Quality of Opposition

Martinez has a clear edge here as he has faced some of the best fighters available at the Middle and Jr. Middleweight division.   The problem here is that he was competitive against the not so good Kermit Cintron in a draw, drew with the above average Paul Williams and lost to the slow Antonio Margarito.  Are these signs that Martinez is only good against certain styles?  Chavez has struggled with boxers like Carlos Molina in his sole blemish (some believe he lost) and has beaten only average opposition.  Sebastian Zbik and Andy Lee stand out in his bum of the month club.   Edge: Martinez

Recent Performances

Martinez hasn’t looked all that good in recent fights struggling to beat his two previous opponents.  Macklin outboxed and out hustled Martinez for some rounds before finally figuring out the tough challenger and knocking him out.   Chavez has looked spectacular in his last two outings destroying usually sturdy Peter Manfredo and bulldozing a very good contender in Andy Lee (just as a good fighter has to do with average opponents).   All this means a better fight for us.   Edge: Chavez

Stamina, Conditioning and Endurance

Both fighters are known to suffer in this category, but the edge must go to Martinez who seems to have a second wind every fight around.  He knows how to rest in between rounds and use the middle rounds to give himself an extra boost in energy.  Chavez has been known for his laziness in training giving him problems once he’s in the ring.  Against Zbik he was out of gas in the last rounds but managed to edge out a decision.   Edge: Martinez

Intangibles

Chavez has an edge here as he fights on Mexican Independence day with a packed house full of rabid mexican fans.  He is used to the spotlight and has the Chavez boxing blood which makes him practically immune to the pressure.   He’s also very strong minded in the ring and doesn’t get fazed by his opponent or the venue.  Martinez has been known to rise to the occasion several times and has shown incredible will in the ring.  He has risen from a dark sad past to get in to this position and uses that as extra energy.   The edge must go to Chavez because he uses these type of advantages to up his performance and weaknesses.  The fact that he’s also a big middleweight who will look more like a cruiserweight come fight night is a big factor coming in as Martinez will have to put his old legs against a big monster.  Edge: Chavez

Outcome

Look for Chavez to come charging forward with a vicious body attack.  Martinez will weather an early storm by the mexican star dancing away enough to stay away from the body punches of the dreaded mexican.  Sergio will tire a little bit come the middle rounds where Chavez will look to apply pressure knocking down the Argentinian.   Sergio, unhurt will get up and continue to rest for a couple of rounds.  Chavez will hurt Martinez to the body often to make the last 4 rounds very competitive.   A late rally by Martinez summed up with Chavez’ bad conditioning will give the Argentinian a sufficient edge to win a close split decision to the disgust of the fans who will cry rematch.

Martinez by Split Decision.